{
  "title": "CBK product + packaging production estimate 2001–2024",
  "status": "ESTIMATE — not audited COGS; volume weighted by library year-activity proxy scaled to ~5M peak year",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-09T21:22:39.567065+00:00",
  "period": {
    "start": 2001,
    "end": 2024,
    "years": 24
  },
  "timeline": {
    "krebs_deliveries": "Through 2023 — Christmas by Krebs product/packaging delivery work",
    "gerson_freelance": "As a freelance designer for Gerson Companies, I handled packaging for both the Hobby Lobby and Walmart programs for the 2025 season—work completed in 2024 for 2025 product on shelf. Both accounts approved all versions during the first client review. I also supported training and handoff to Gerson teams so they have the know-how to independently complete future projects with Krebs clients absorbed in Gerson’s acquisition of Krebs.",
    "gerson_training_handoff": "Training and handoff to Gerson teams for Krebs clients absorbed via Gerson acquisition of Krebs",
    "krebs_scope": "Scope covers all Krebs products: internal print production across the various print processes (pad print, screen, inkjet, silk, multi-pass, personalization, and related methods) and the packaging that goes with them—for both internal Krebs programs and client work."
  },
  "assumptions": {
    "peak_year_units": 5000000,
    "peak_year": 2023,
    "peak_year_basis": "Highest filename-year activity in Eagle (2023); scaled to ~5M unit peak program scale",
    "volume_curve": "units = 5M × (year_hits / peak_hits), with floor weights",
    "product_unit_cost_2022usd": {
      "low": 0.81,
      "mid": 1.41,
      "high": 2.02
    },
    "packaging_unit_cost_2022usd": {
      "low": 0.12,
      "mid": 0.28,
      "high": 0.55
    },
    "constant_dollars": "2022 USD mid rates for comparability across years",
    "product_definition": "All Krebs products — internal print production across process types; not a single SKU class only",
    "packaging_definition": "Packaging that goes with Krebs products (internal and client), not packaging-only side work",
    "includes_internal_and_client": true
  },
  "library_year_activity_proxy": {
    "2001": 35,
    "2002": 61,
    "2003": 85,
    "2004": 55,
    "2005": 26,
    "2006": 30,
    "2007": 41,
    "2008": 41,
    "2009": 69,
    "2010": 165,
    "2011": 166,
    "2012": 307,
    "2013": 418,
    "2014": 324,
    "2015": 240,
    "2016": 282,
    "2017": 258,
    "2018": 257,
    "2019": 221,
    "2020": 305,
    "2021": 259,
    "2022": 315,
    "2023": 514,
    "2024": 164
  },
  "years_constant_2022usd": [
    {
      "year": 2001,
      "est_units": 400000,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 564000,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 112000,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 676000,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 35
    },
    {
      "year": 2002,
      "est_units": 593385,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 836673,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 166148,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 1002821,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 61
    },
    {
      "year": 2003,
      "est_units": 826848,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 1165856,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 231517,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 1397373,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 85
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "est_units": 535019,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 754377,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 149805,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 904182,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 55
    },
    {
      "year": 2005,
      "est_units": 400000,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 564000,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 112000,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 676000,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 26
    },
    {
      "year": 2006,
      "est_units": 400000,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 564000,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 112000,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 676000,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 30
    },
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "est_units": 400000,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 564000,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 112000,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 676000,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 41
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "est_units": 400000,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 564000,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 112000,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 676000,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 41
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "est_units": 671206,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 946400,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 187938,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 1134338,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 69
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "est_units": 1605058,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 2263132,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 449416,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 2712548,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 165
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "est_units": 1614786,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 2276848,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 452140,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 2728988,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 166
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "est_units": 2986381,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 4210797,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 836187,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 5046984,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 307
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "est_units": 4066148,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 5733269,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 1138521,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 6871790,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 418
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "est_units": 3151751,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 4443969,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 882490,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 5326459,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 324
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "est_units": 2334630,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 3291828,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 653696,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 3945525,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 240
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "est_units": 2743191,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 3867899,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 768093,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 4635993,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 282
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "est_units": 2509728,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 3538716,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 702724,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 4241440,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 258
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "est_units": 2500000,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 3525000,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 700000,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 4225000,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 257
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "est_units": 2149805,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 3031225,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 601945,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 3633170,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 221
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "est_units": 2966926,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 4183366,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 830739,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 5014105,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 305
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "est_units": 2519455,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 3552432,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 705447,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 4257879,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 259
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "est_units": 3064202,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 4320525,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 857977,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 5178501,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 315
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "est_units": 5000000,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 7050000,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 1400000,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 8450000,
      "era": "krebs_delivery",
      "activity_proxy": 514
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "est_units": 1595331,
      "product_mid_2022usd": 2249417,
      "packaging_mid_2022usd": 446693,
      "combined_mid_2022usd": 2696109,
      "era": "gerson_2025_season_prep",
      "activity_proxy": 164
    }
  ],
  "totals_constant_2022usd_mid": {
    "units": 45433850,
    "product": 64061729,
    "packaging": 12721476,
    "combined": 76783205,
    "product_display": "$64.1M",
    "packaging_display": "$12.7M",
    "combined_display": "$76.8M",
    "avg_annual_combined": "$3.2M",
    "avg_annual_units": 1893077
  },
  "totals_krebs_era_2001_2023": {
    "units": 43838519,
    "product_display": "$61.8M",
    "packaging_display": "$12.3M",
    "combined_display": "$74.1M",
    "note": "Krebs delivery period through 2023"
  },
  "year_2024_gerson": {
    "units": 1595331,
    "product_display": "$2.2M",
    "packaging_display": "$447K",
    "combined_display": "$2.7M",
    "note": "2024 freelance via Gerson Companies for 2025 shelf (Hobby Lobby + Walmart packaging); first-review approval both accounts"
  },
  "single_year_5M_snapshot_2022usd": {
    "product": "$7.0M",
    "packaging": "$1.4M",
    "combined": "$8.4M",
    "product_per_unit": 1.41,
    "packaging_per_unit": 0.28,
    "combined_per_unit": 1.69
  },
  "portfolio_language": "Scope covers all Krebs products: internal print production across the various print processes (pad print, screen, inkjet, silk, multi-pass, personalization, and related methods) and the packaging that goes with them—for both internal Krebs programs and client work. Impact estimates across 2001–2024 model product + packaging together (internal print + packaging for internal Krebs and clients), with Krebs deliveries through 2023 and Gerson 2024 work for 2025 shelf. Mid combined ~$1.69/unit; ~$8.4M at a 5M-unit year; cumulative activity-weighted totals on the Impact page. Estimate only.",
  "krebs_scope": {
    "summary": "Scope covers all Krebs products: internal print production across the various print processes (pad print, screen, inkjet, silk, multi-pass, personalization, and related methods) and the packaging that goes with them—for both internal Krebs programs and client work.",
    "product": "All Krebs products via internal print production (various processes)",
    "packaging": "Packaging accompanying those products",
    "audiences": [
      "Internal Krebs programs",
      "Client programs"
    ]
  }
}